The Federal Reserve Bank of New York tracks what it calls the "college wage premium" — the earnings difference between workers with a bachelor's degree and those with only a high school diploma. In recent years, the median college graduate earns around $80,000 annually, compared to roughly $47,000 for the median high school graduate. That's a gap of more than $32,000 per year, and it's near its all-time high.

The NY Fed's 2025 research found that the total cost of a college degree — direct costs plus foregone earnings — is about $180,000 in today's dollars. The typical graduate can expect a median return on that investment of 12.5%. The researchers concluded that for most students, college still beats the benchmark for a sound investment. Georgetown University's Center on Education and the Workforce puts the lifetime earnings premium for bachelor's holders at roughly $2.8 million over a career, compared to $1.6 million for high school diploma holders.

But — and this matters — those are median figures. About 25% of college graduates don't see a positive return, according to analysis by College Values Online. The degree that sits at the bottom of the earnings distribution, at the wrong school, with too much debt, is a fundamentally different proposition from the median.

Research from Georgetown's Center on Education and the Workforce, and from FREOPP's analysis of 53,000 degree programs, consistently reaches the same finding: what you study explains more of the variation in earnings than where you study. A computer science graduate from a state university typically out-earns an English graduate from an elite private university in the first decade of their career.

Engineering, computer science, nursing, and economics degrees tend to have the strongest returns — FREOPP estimates median lifetime ROI of $500,000 or more for these fields. Education, fine arts, and psychology often produce modest or negative financial returns. The NY Fed found that engineering and computer math graduates earn a median 18% return on their college investment; education graduates earn less than 6%.

This doesn't mean people should avoid fields they're drawn to. It does mean that if you're borrowing $60,000 to study a field with a $38,000 starting salary, the math requires serious attention before you commit.

One of the most underappreciated facts about college ROI is that graduation rates are much lower than most families assume. National completion rates for four-year programs have hovered around 60% — meaning roughly 40% of students who start a four-year program don't finish it.

The financial consequences of not completing are severe. You've paid tuition, you've incurred debt, you've spent years not working full-time, and you don't have the credential that justifies all of it. The NY Fed's analysis found that the median ROI for a five-year graduate drops to 9.3% and for a six-year graduate to just over 7%, compared to 12.5% for a four-year finish. Students who drop out without a degree face the worst outcome: debt without the premium.

This makes the question "what is the graduation rate for this specific program at this specific school?" one of the most financially important questions you can ask. The College Scorecard at the Department of Education's website provides this data by institution and program.

College's financial return depends more on how much you borrow than on almost any other single factor. A degree that costs $80,000 in net price represents a very different investment than the same degree at $30,000. Yet many families treat the school's price as fixed and borrowing as the necessary adjustment, rather than the other way around.

The median student loan debt for 2024 bachelor's graduates was approximately $29,300, according to College Board data. At that level, with a starting salary above $50,000, repayment is manageable on a standard 10-year plan. But students who borrow $80,000 or more — or whose parents take on additional Parent PLUS debt on top of student borrowing — face a fundamentally different calculation.

The NY Fed's research found that the median ROI stays above 9% even for students paying $260,000 or more in total costs — but that assumes graduation in four years. Add dropout risk, a lower-paying major, or several years of delayed completion, and the same cost can produce a negative return.

College is still worth it for most students who finish, borrow within reason, and choose majors with employment prospects that match their debt level. It is not automatically worth it at any price or for any program. The most important questions to answer before committing are: what is the actual net price after grants and scholarships, what does this major actually pay in the first few years after graduation, what is this school's completion rate for this program, and what is the total borrowing plan? The answers to those four questions tell you far more about whether this specific college decision makes financial sense than "college" as a concept ever could.